Although conservatives will point out that the latest Gallup poll
on the Affordable Care Act shows that a combined 52% of the public
supports scaling back or repealing the health care law, if you look more
into the numbers, you'll find that there has been a shift to the left
among Democrats and Independents in support of more progressive health
care reform.
In October, 46% of Democrats preferred to keep the law as is, and 21% wanted to expand it.
Now, in December, 34% of Democrats preferred to expand health care reform, and 31% wanted to keep it as is.
The 2% increase in Democrats who want to scale back the law and the 1% increase in Democrats who want to repeal it are statistically insignificant, given the 4% margin of error.
We see a similar shift to the left among Independents.
The percentages preferring to "keep the law as is" or "scale it back" fell by 1%--effectively, no change.
The percentage of Independents who wanted to repeal the law fell from 33% to 29%. That's just at the margin of error.
The real change, though, was in the increased support for expanding the law among Independents: a rise from 14% to 21%.
Just as Democrats and Independents registered leftward movement, Republicans registered rightward movement.
The percentage of Republicans wanting to expand the law fell by 2% (statistically insignificant). The percentage of Republicans wanting to keep the law as is fell by 5% (8% to 3%). The percentage wanting to scale it back fell by 4% (26% to 22%).
Those changes corresponded with an 11% shift among Republicans in favor of repeal: 57% to 68%. Thus, a supermajority of Republicans wants full repeal, but less than a third of the general public agrees.
I would have liked Gallup to poll specific forms of expanding the law and scaling it back. As examples of expansion, you could poll lowering the Medicare eligibility age to 55, a Medicare buy-in, a public option, single payer, and an NHS-style health care system. As examples of scaling back, you could ask people which part(s) of the law they want eliminated: the individual mandate, the employer mandate, the insurance marketplaces, the insurance subsidies, the Medicaid expansion, or other parts of the law. Those results could be very revealing.
In October, 46% of Democrats preferred to keep the law as is, and 21% wanted to expand it.
Now, in December, 34% of Democrats preferred to expand health care reform, and 31% wanted to keep it as is.
The 2% increase in Democrats who want to scale back the law and the 1% increase in Democrats who want to repeal it are statistically insignificant, given the 4% margin of error.
We see a similar shift to the left among Independents.
The percentages preferring to "keep the law as is" or "scale it back" fell by 1%--effectively, no change.
The percentage of Independents who wanted to repeal the law fell from 33% to 29%. That's just at the margin of error.
The real change, though, was in the increased support for expanding the law among Independents: a rise from 14% to 21%.
Just as Democrats and Independents registered leftward movement, Republicans registered rightward movement.
The percentage of Republicans wanting to expand the law fell by 2% (statistically insignificant). The percentage of Republicans wanting to keep the law as is fell by 5% (8% to 3%). The percentage wanting to scale it back fell by 4% (26% to 22%).
Those changes corresponded with an 11% shift among Republicans in favor of repeal: 57% to 68%. Thus, a supermajority of Republicans wants full repeal, but less than a third of the general public agrees.
I would have liked Gallup to poll specific forms of expanding the law and scaling it back. As examples of expansion, you could poll lowering the Medicare eligibility age to 55, a Medicare buy-in, a public option, single payer, and an NHS-style health care system. As examples of scaling back, you could ask people which part(s) of the law they want eliminated: the individual mandate, the employer mandate, the insurance marketplaces, the insurance subsidies, the Medicaid expansion, or other parts of the law. Those results could be very revealing.
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