Yesterday, I posted a diary on the recent CNN/ORC International poll
on the health care bill, highlighting the unfortunate ubiquity of
misleading reporting on the results. News sites--and not just Politico
which I highlighted--lumped together those who oppose the Affordable
Care Act from the left and those who oppose it from the right when a
more accurate presentation of results would identify what I call the
universal health caucus--the support/strengthen constituency. I would
assume (I hope correctly) many of the bill's supporters would likewise
support a stronger bill and may believe the bill is more far-reaching
and inclusive than it, in fact, is.
I wanted to dig deeper into the demographic breakdown yesterday, but I could not get the link to the poll results to work at the time. Thankfully, the link now works. Going into it, I was particularly curious about the demographics of the respondents who thought the bill was "not liberal enough"; however, I will go through all of the contingents here.
First of all, I would like to point out what I call "the case of the missing 3 percent." CNN's poll has two questions, one that covers overall support/opposition and the more thorough one I addressed above.
The general question reads as follows:
I wanted to dig deeper into the demographic breakdown yesterday, but I could not get the link to the poll results to work at the time. Thankfully, the link now works. Going into it, I was particularly curious about the demographics of the respondents who thought the bill was "not liberal enough"; however, I will go through all of the contingents here.
First of all, I would like to point out what I call "the case of the missing 3 percent." CNN's poll has two questions, one that covers overall support/opposition and the more thorough one I addressed above.
The general question reads as follows:
As you may know, a bill that makes major changes to the country's health care system became law in 2010. Based on what you have read or heard about that legislation, do you generally favor or generally oppose it?43% said they support it, 54% said they oppose it, and 3% have no opinion.
To get a more accurate reading on public opinion, CNN asked this follow-up:
Do you oppose that legislation because you think its approach toward health care is too liberal, or because you think it is not liberal enough?Along with the 43% supporters, 35% said that the bill is "too liberal," and 16% said it is "not liberal enough." 7% had no opinion.
If you add up the opposition 35 + 16, you only get 51%; however, the
top line for opposition was 54%. Apparently, 3% of these folks moved
from opposition to no opinion; I would consider the rest of the
difference to be a product of rounding. What gives? "I don't like it,
but I have no reasons for not liking it"?
I find it somewhat problematic that the question was divided into two distinct parts. For instance, I would have wanted a much stronger bill that actually achieved the goal of universal insurance (such as a single payer system); however, if I were asked the general favor/oppose question, I would probably hesitate unless I knew I had the opportunity to qualify my opposition.
Also, as we know, polls should often be taken with somewhat of a grain of salt; the margin of error is +/- 8 percent. However, the endurance of the trends gives the poll more credibility.
GENDER
A majority of both men and women fall in the support/strengthen caucus as I defined it above, and, as should come as little surprise, women are more likely than men to favor the bill as is and to oppose it for not being liberal enough.
44% of women favor the bill, and 18% oppose it for not being liberal enough. 30% oppose it for being too liberal. Universal health care caucus: 62-30
41% of men favor the bill, and 13% oppose it for not being liberal enough. 40% oppose it for being too liberal. Universal health care caucus: 54-40
RACE/ETHNICITY
There is--unfortunately if not unsurprisingly--a large gap between whites and non-whites in support for the bill and for universal health care overall.
35% of whites favor the bill, and 15% oppose it for not being liberal enough. 43% oppose it for being too liberal. Universal health care caucus: 50-43
60% of non-whites favor the bill, and 17% oppose it for not being liberal enough. 17% oppose it for being too liberal. Universal health care caucus: 77-17
AGE
Among the various age groups, young people (18-34) are the strongest supporters of the bill, and seniors (65+) are the most likely to oppose it from both directions. The support/strength caucus declines and the conservative opposition grows with age.
Among the 18-34 crowd, 52% favor the bill, and 13% oppose it for not being liberal enough. 28% oppose it for being too liberal. Universal health care caucus: 65-28
Among the 35-49 crowd, 43% favor the bill, and 15% oppose it for not being liberal enough. 37% oppose it for being too liberal. Universal health care caucus: 58-37
Among the 50-64 crowd, 40% favor the bill, and 15% oppose it for not being liberal enough. 38% oppose it for being too liberal. Universal health care caucus: 55-38
Among seniors, only 31% favor the bill, and 22% oppose it for not being liberal enough. 39% oppose it for being too liberal. Universal health care caucus: 54-39
INCOME
The poll divided respondents into two income categories: below $50K and above $50K--although it is unclear whether this refers to individual or household income. Regardless, those in the lower income group were more likely both to favor the bill and to oppose it from the left.
48% of those with incomes under $50K favor the bill, and 21% oppose it for not being liberal enough. 23% oppose it for being too liberal. Universal health care caucus: 69-23
41% of those with incomes above $50K favor the bill, and 10% oppose it for not being liberal enough. 45% oppose it for being too liberal. Universal health care caucus: 51-45
I would infer that the income gap here has a strong correlation with people's current insurance status--with those currently comfortably insured less likely to value universal health insurance as a goal.
EDUCATION
The pattern we saw in income occurs in the education category as well. CNN divides the respondents into two groups: No College and Attended College. (No distinctions are made among "some college," "undergraduate degree," and "postgraduate degree.")
42% of those with no college background favor the bill, and 26% oppose it for not being liberal enough. 25% oppose it for being too liberal. Universal health care caucus: 68-25
43% of those who attended college favor the bill, and 8% oppose it for not being liberal enough. 43% oppose it for being too liberal. Universal health care caucus: 51-43
POLITICAL AFFILIATION
As we would expect, almost all Democrats are in our universal health care caucus--joined by a majority of independents. Democrats, strangely enough, are not the most likely to oppose the bill from the left.
72% of Democrats favor the bill, and 14% oppose it for not being liberal enough. 10% oppose it for being too liberal. Universal health care caucus: 86-10
36% of Independents favor the bill, and 17% oppose it for not being liberal enough. 36% oppose it for being too liberal. Universal health care caucus: 53-36
16% of Republicans favor the bill, and 14% oppose it for not being liberal enough. [These Republicans fascinate me.] 67% oppose it for being too liberal. Universal health care caucus loses 30-67
The patterns are similar across the categories of political identity (rather than affiliation); however, the "moderate" category will trend more toward the left because of the number of self-described moderate Democrats. Interestingly, moderates, not liberals, are the most likely to oppose the bill from the left in this poll.
68% of liberals favor the bill, and 12% oppose it for not being liberal enough. 8% oppose it for being too liberal. [Who are these people, and why do they call themselves liberals?] Universal health care caucus: 80-8
47% of moderates favor the bill, and 21% oppose it for not being liberal enough. 27% oppose it for being too liberal. Universal health care caucus: 68-27
25% of conservatives favor the bill, and 10% oppose it for not being liberal enough. [Who are these conservatives who think it's not liberal enough? They fascinate me. I have, however, come across conservative defenses of single payer which stress its fiscal responsibility.] 59% oppose it for being too liberal. Universal health care caucus loses: 35-59
REGION
As one would expect, the support for the bill is strongest in the Northeast. It is weakest in the West--probably because the poll takes a very expansive definition of West (everything west of the Mississippi, I'd guess).
53% of Northeasterners favor the bill, and 13% oppose it for not being liberal enough. 25% oppose the bill for being too liberal. Universal health care caucus: 66-25
48% of Midwesterners favor the bill, and 17% oppose it for not being liberal enough. 24% oppose the bill for being too liberal. Universal health care caucus: 65-24
38% of Southerners favor the bill, and 17% oppose it for not being liberal enough. 40% oppose the bill for being too liberal. Universal health care caucus: 55-40
33% of Westerners favor the bill, and 15% oppose it for not being liberal enough. 48% oppose the bill for being too liberal. Universal health care caucus: 48-48
LOCATION
Unsurprisingly, support for the bill is strongest in urban areas, and conservative opposition is strongest in the suburbs. Left opposition is strongest in rural areas, meaning that we still have a thriving prairie populist culture.
52% of urbanites favor the bill, and 9% oppose it for not being liberal enough. 33% oppose it for being too liberal. Universal health care caucus: 61-33
40% of suburbanites favor the bill, and 12% oppose it for not being liberal enough. 42% oppose it for being too liberal. Universal health care caucus: 52-42
34% of rural Americans favor the bill, and 29% oppose it for not being liberal enough. 32% oppose it for being too liberal. Universal health care caucus: 63-32
I find it somewhat problematic that the question was divided into two distinct parts. For instance, I would have wanted a much stronger bill that actually achieved the goal of universal insurance (such as a single payer system); however, if I were asked the general favor/oppose question, I would probably hesitate unless I knew I had the opportunity to qualify my opposition.
Also, as we know, polls should often be taken with somewhat of a grain of salt; the margin of error is +/- 8 percent. However, the endurance of the trends gives the poll more credibility.
GENDER
A majority of both men and women fall in the support/strengthen caucus as I defined it above, and, as should come as little surprise, women are more likely than men to favor the bill as is and to oppose it for not being liberal enough.
44% of women favor the bill, and 18% oppose it for not being liberal enough. 30% oppose it for being too liberal. Universal health care caucus: 62-30
41% of men favor the bill, and 13% oppose it for not being liberal enough. 40% oppose it for being too liberal. Universal health care caucus: 54-40
RACE/ETHNICITY
There is--unfortunately if not unsurprisingly--a large gap between whites and non-whites in support for the bill and for universal health care overall.
35% of whites favor the bill, and 15% oppose it for not being liberal enough. 43% oppose it for being too liberal. Universal health care caucus: 50-43
60% of non-whites favor the bill, and 17% oppose it for not being liberal enough. 17% oppose it for being too liberal. Universal health care caucus: 77-17
AGE
Among the various age groups, young people (18-34) are the strongest supporters of the bill, and seniors (65+) are the most likely to oppose it from both directions. The support/strength caucus declines and the conservative opposition grows with age.
Among the 18-34 crowd, 52% favor the bill, and 13% oppose it for not being liberal enough. 28% oppose it for being too liberal. Universal health care caucus: 65-28
Among the 35-49 crowd, 43% favor the bill, and 15% oppose it for not being liberal enough. 37% oppose it for being too liberal. Universal health care caucus: 58-37
Among the 50-64 crowd, 40% favor the bill, and 15% oppose it for not being liberal enough. 38% oppose it for being too liberal. Universal health care caucus: 55-38
Among seniors, only 31% favor the bill, and 22% oppose it for not being liberal enough. 39% oppose it for being too liberal. Universal health care caucus: 54-39
INCOME
The poll divided respondents into two income categories: below $50K and above $50K--although it is unclear whether this refers to individual or household income. Regardless, those in the lower income group were more likely both to favor the bill and to oppose it from the left.
48% of those with incomes under $50K favor the bill, and 21% oppose it for not being liberal enough. 23% oppose it for being too liberal. Universal health care caucus: 69-23
41% of those with incomes above $50K favor the bill, and 10% oppose it for not being liberal enough. 45% oppose it for being too liberal. Universal health care caucus: 51-45
I would infer that the income gap here has a strong correlation with people's current insurance status--with those currently comfortably insured less likely to value universal health insurance as a goal.
EDUCATION
The pattern we saw in income occurs in the education category as well. CNN divides the respondents into two groups: No College and Attended College. (No distinctions are made among "some college," "undergraduate degree," and "postgraduate degree.")
42% of those with no college background favor the bill, and 26% oppose it for not being liberal enough. 25% oppose it for being too liberal. Universal health care caucus: 68-25
43% of those who attended college favor the bill, and 8% oppose it for not being liberal enough. 43% oppose it for being too liberal. Universal health care caucus: 51-43
POLITICAL AFFILIATION
As we would expect, almost all Democrats are in our universal health care caucus--joined by a majority of independents. Democrats, strangely enough, are not the most likely to oppose the bill from the left.
72% of Democrats favor the bill, and 14% oppose it for not being liberal enough. 10% oppose it for being too liberal. Universal health care caucus: 86-10
36% of Independents favor the bill, and 17% oppose it for not being liberal enough. 36% oppose it for being too liberal. Universal health care caucus: 53-36
16% of Republicans favor the bill, and 14% oppose it for not being liberal enough. [These Republicans fascinate me.] 67% oppose it for being too liberal. Universal health care caucus loses 30-67
The patterns are similar across the categories of political identity (rather than affiliation); however, the "moderate" category will trend more toward the left because of the number of self-described moderate Democrats. Interestingly, moderates, not liberals, are the most likely to oppose the bill from the left in this poll.
68% of liberals favor the bill, and 12% oppose it for not being liberal enough. 8% oppose it for being too liberal. [Who are these people, and why do they call themselves liberals?] Universal health care caucus: 80-8
47% of moderates favor the bill, and 21% oppose it for not being liberal enough. 27% oppose it for being too liberal. Universal health care caucus: 68-27
25% of conservatives favor the bill, and 10% oppose it for not being liberal enough. [Who are these conservatives who think it's not liberal enough? They fascinate me. I have, however, come across conservative defenses of single payer which stress its fiscal responsibility.] 59% oppose it for being too liberal. Universal health care caucus loses: 35-59
REGION
As one would expect, the support for the bill is strongest in the Northeast. It is weakest in the West--probably because the poll takes a very expansive definition of West (everything west of the Mississippi, I'd guess).
53% of Northeasterners favor the bill, and 13% oppose it for not being liberal enough. 25% oppose the bill for being too liberal. Universal health care caucus: 66-25
48% of Midwesterners favor the bill, and 17% oppose it for not being liberal enough. 24% oppose the bill for being too liberal. Universal health care caucus: 65-24
38% of Southerners favor the bill, and 17% oppose it for not being liberal enough. 40% oppose the bill for being too liberal. Universal health care caucus: 55-40
33% of Westerners favor the bill, and 15% oppose it for not being liberal enough. 48% oppose the bill for being too liberal. Universal health care caucus: 48-48
LOCATION
Unsurprisingly, support for the bill is strongest in urban areas, and conservative opposition is strongest in the suburbs. Left opposition is strongest in rural areas, meaning that we still have a thriving prairie populist culture.
52% of urbanites favor the bill, and 9% oppose it for not being liberal enough. 33% oppose it for being too liberal. Universal health care caucus: 61-33
40% of suburbanites favor the bill, and 12% oppose it for not being liberal enough. 42% oppose it for being too liberal. Universal health care caucus: 52-42
34% of rural Americans favor the bill, and 29% oppose it for not being liberal enough. 32% oppose it for being too liberal. Universal health care caucus: 63-32
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